Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Mixed Signals Create Uncertainty

We continue to see mixed results from earnings reports. Many companies have beat analyst expectations and as we have said before, cost cutting has been the leading factor in those positive earnings reports. However, most industrial companies don't see light at the end of the tunnel yet. 2010 may show improved growth prospects but have stocks run to far too fast? Unemployment will continue to rise as we see Verizon cutting 8000 jobs and B of A cutting 6000 jobs. These trends are countered by improved home sales but it appears that pricing is still weak but clearly improving (Case/Shiller) and the injured consumer is not enthusiastic about aggressively buying a new home.

The markets have run fast and there seems to be a little consolidation in them the last couple of days. Until we see some great economic news or a very positive outlook from an industrial company, the mixed signals will prevent stocks from moving much higher. We are more concerned about the W market than the V market. Time will tell who is right.

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