Tuesday, October 11, 2011

What Steve Jobs Will Do: The Future of Apple

Steve Jobs was the greatest inventor of our lifetime. He transformed many industries and obviously viewed business disruption as one of his primary goals. It seems clear that if he were to live another thirty years, there would have been many other inventions that would have likely changed our lives. As such, he probably has contemplated a bunch of other products and designs that he would have liked to create over the next five to ten years. These are likely stored in the Apple road map.
As I contemplate the future for Apple, it seems apparent that new bold ideas are in store so I will take a shot of thinking, what would Steve do? The key premise is that all electronics and appliances of the future will be created with computer capabilities. We know Apple is focused on the TV which likely implies a sleek box which controls all media and music related to the living room/family room. The TV of the future is also likely to be wireless and communicate with one's iPhone, iPad and iPod. This could be the device that plays your music in stereo while enabling easy surfing of TV channels and the web while making the TV more social. Advertisers are also going to have many more opportunities to target their audience with these new capabilities. It might even have touch screen ability but from your couch, an iPad control seems more likely. Of course, when you are in a remote location, one will be able to Tivo programs from the iPod, iPad, and the iPhone.
Once Apple has conquered the TV and all its uses, it may be on to the kitchen. Shouldn't the refrigerator, microwave, stove, blender, toaster, and all other appliances be controlled by an Apple device from a remote location. Every refrigerator may have a computer screen to surf the web or pull up the weekly menu or find a recipe. It is hard to imagine the kitchen of the future but the possibilities are endless. Why wouldn't Steve want his little computer company to create an interactive kitchen?
If Steve Jobs became the king of the living room and the kitchen, the rest of the house must also be in the cards. I can envision computer controls of the heating and air conditioning, electricity, lights, alarms, and even the doors. These might not be the typical consumer products we have come to expect from Apple but they will be big and bold ideas that will be controlled by iPods, iPads, and iPhones. The House of the Future will certainly allow many more comparisons of Steve Jobs and Thomas Edison.
Finally, once Apple has created products to control the whole house, I think another big opportunity Steve probably has studied is the car. Every car will likely be equipped with some type of computer or iPad in the front passenger seat as well as in the back seats. The car of the future will clearly be more computer driven and the web will be a standard feature. It is also likely that consumers will be able to turn on their cars with a remote Apple device and of course regulate the heat before they step out of the house. If we want to compare Steve Jobs to Henry Ford, the car of the future will likely do just that.
Of course the future product road map for Apple is anybody's guess but since the company has indicated that the best products to come from them, haven't been produced yet, we can expect some great revolutionary ideas. Steve Jobs has seen the future before and it is likely he saw it again. We just need to patiently wait for the brilliance to shine in the years to come.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

The United States will Follow in Europe's Path

I am in Washington DC and decided to see the Newseum. One of the great exhibits they have is on a daily basis they post the front page of 800 newspapers from the U.S. and abroad. All the papers cover local news but every paper in this country today mentioned the debt fiasco going on in Congress. The Republicans have proposed to take away Congress's ability to raise the debt ceiling and leave the decision in the President's hands. This is just another political game.

The Republicans want to cut this country's debt load by at least $4 trillion over 10 years strictly though cost cutting measures while the President is willing to also have the same level of debt reduction as long as we increase taxes. This battle is at a stalemate and the Republican suggestion to try and pass a $2 trillion bill will not be sufficient.

The United States is a bankrupt nation but nobody in Government wants to admit it. Last year Ireland needed to be rescued and today Greece is spewing debt and facing a possible default. This week Italy's financial condition caused the markets to tumble. Portugal and Spain could be next in line. If the United States were a member of the EU, the financial gurus would be pounding on their debt and yields on treasuries would be much higher. Nobody would be as concerned with the technical default of our debt limit because the true worry would be too much debt and not enough revenues. Sound familiar?

The U.S. has been a financial powerhouse for the last 70 years and we have been the world's lender of last resort. Times have changed and we need to clean up our own fiscal mess. We can't pay our current bills and our kids won't be able to pay the future bills. Congress needs to wake up and forget politics before the United States becomes Greece. Social Security is broken and so is Medicare and Medicaid. We can no longer afford to protect the world so let's cut defense. Let's re-examine subsidies like ethanol and other farm subsidies. In this light, oil tax preferences may also have to be chopped. With our economy floundering and Bernanke discussing QE3, it might not make sense to raise tax rates but moving to a flat tax could clearly generate more revenues.

Washington needs to change and somebody needs to sit Nancy Pelosi down and teach her basic economics. Today's headlines have her fighting with her own party by telling the President that she won't cut any of the entitlement programs. Where does she think the money is coming to pay Social Security? Can someone possibly be so blind to reality or just so self-serving that it is worth sacrificing her own country's future?

The United States looks like one of those troubled European countries and unless Congress gets it's act together, the dollar will crash, treasury prices will plummet, a default will be in the cards, and the next financial crises will be upon us.