Friday, November 28, 2008

Black Friday Will Forecast the Holiday Season

Most investors are already expecting poor holiday sales so everybody is focused on this today's shoppers after the Thanksgiving break. Today should be a quiet day in the market as most professional investors take the day off. It is surprising that stocks held up well during the Mumbai terrorist attack. This is another good sign as the market this week shook off all the bad news and advanced higher. We believe their is a big short squeeze occurring and if the market continues to inch up, we could get another big rally next week. Our reasoning is the fear of a rally will cause the shorts to cover and force stocks even higher. That rally would then lead to another downdraft which could test the old lows.

We will watch the markets closely but don't expect much news today. The Obama effect seems to be positive for the market and at some point he should come out and say no tax increases next year. It will be onto next week where the volatility shall continue and the market should have another big swing. The only question is which way?

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